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Hindsight bias: the knew-it-all-along phenomenon

by
Anne-Laure Le Cunff
Ness Labs
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Hindsight bias is the tendency to think that you knew about the outcome of an event before the event actually occurred.

Three models describe the mechanisms by which cognitive bias occurs:  - Selective activation and reconstructive anchoring: we can only remember a limited amount of information so we reconstruct our memories every time we recall an event later. - Reconstruction after feedback with “take the best”: If we try to calculate the probability of a previous event, we use our current knowledge to update that probability. - Causal model theory: If we are surprised by an event, we go back and connect the preceding events logically to explain the actual outcome.

Consequences of Hindsight Bias:

Hindsight bias may prevent us from learning from our previous actions because we rationalize our previous uncertainty and actions.

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